Tournament recap
🇮🇹Italian Open 2026
Who the crowd backed, who let them down, and how the field scored.
The players
🇦🇷 T. M. Etcheverry
7% had them lifting the trophy. They went out in R64.
🇮🇹 J. Sinner
Their wins paid out 44,525 points across every bracket in the draw.
🇨🇿 T. Machac
Named in 57 picks, across 12 brackets.
Counts every round, so deep runs inflate this.
🇫🇷 U. Humbert
Just 0% of the 11 brackets that picked their opening match backed them — the lowest in the draw.
How the field did
21%
231 of 1,109 picks called correctly.
58 of 94
matches went against the crowd's majority pick — 62% of the tournament.
Semifinal
4% accuracy, against a 10% median across all rounds.
36 of 94
A bracket built from the majority pick in every match would have beaten 98% of the 104 real entries.
The crowd's bracket is complete; most real entries are not.
Accuracy falls with every round by design — calling a quarterfinal means having had the winner survive three earlier matches first. Compare a round against the same round elsewhere, not against the one before it.
The matches that did the damage
🇳🇴 C. Ruud def. 🇮🇹 L. Darderi
Semifinal — 0 of the 66 brackets that picked this match called it.
The people
5
of the 103 brackets that named a champion had J. Sinner winning the title.
bennyto
21 of 32 correct in R128.